Cardiovascular therapeutics
Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Arteriovenous Fistula Restenosis Following Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients Using SMOTE Algorithm
By Yang J, Zhu Y, Zhu X and 5 others.
Abstract
Background
Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) restenosis after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) affects hemodialysis in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. Data imbalance limits predictive model accuracy.
Objective
To identify risk factors and develop a SMOTE-based risk prediction model for AVF restenosis within 12 months after PTA.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study enrolled 241 consecutive MHD patients with AVF stenosis undergoing PTA between July 2022 and July 2025. Each patient contributed one index PTA. Patients were divided into restenosis (45 cases) and nonrestenosis (196 cases) groups according to whether AVF restenosis occurred within 12 months after PTA. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression identified risk factors. The SMOTE algorithm addressed data imbalance. Model performance was evaluated by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).