Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Trend Analysis of African Swine Fever Virus in Romanian Wild Boar Populations (2018-2024)
By Pascu C, Badea C, Herman V and 4 others.
Abstract
Background
African Swine Fever (ASF) remains a critical threat to the swine industry globally, with wild boars (Sus scrofa) acting as a major wildlife reservoir. Romania has been one of the most severely affected European countries since the virus's introduction.
Objectives
This study aims to estimate the long-term spatiotemporal trends, environmental persistence, and transmission dynamics of ASF virus (ASFV) in the Romanian wild boar population based on a finalized dataset of 1443 confirmed cases distributed across an 80-month timeline (May 2018-December 2024).
Methods
Advanced epidemiological workflows integrating spatial and temporal modeling frameworks were developed. Spatiotemporal cluster detection was performed using SatScan to identify significant disease hotspots. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were utilized to model non-linear seasonal trends and spatial patterns of carcass persistence. Furthermore, the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) was calculated using a Bayesian renewal framework via the EpiEstim package, parameterized with a wild boar serial distribution (mean = 10.3 days; SD = 4.2 days).