Epidemiological modeling of African swine fever in wild boars-A systematic review

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease that poses a major threat to swine production, with wild boars contributing to virus persistence and transmission. We systematically reviewed global epidemiological modeling studies published from 2014 to 2024 to assess modeling approaches, transmission pathways, methodological patterns, and factors associated with ASF occurrence and spread in wild boar populations. Fifty-four studies from twenty-nine countries were grouped into five categories based on research objectives. Risk-factor and spatiotemporal analyses were the most common approaches, supporting targeted surveillance and risk mapping. Carcass-mediated transmission, wild boar density, movement, habitat conditions, and seasonal variation were important factors influencing ASF occurrence and spread. As modeling approaches differ in their assumptions, data requirements, and applicability, we developed a framework linking model choice to surveillance capacity, outbreak stage, data availability, and management objectives. This framework provides a structured basis for selecting appropriate approaches to strengthen ASF surveillance and control strategies.