PloS one
Predicting under-five child mortality in Zambia: Machine learning versus parametric survival models
By Arge KG.
Abstract
Background
In sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality remains a critical public health challenge, with Zambia exhibiting some of the highest rates in the region. While survival analysis has identified key risk factors, these methods often fail to capture complex non-linear interactions and the dynamic, time-varying nature of longitudinal markers like birth intervals. This study aimed to develop and compare predictive survival models to improve risk stratification for under-five mortality using the 2024 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS).
Methods
A cohort of 35,610 live births was initially identified, with a final analytic sample of 9,362 singleton births and 1,236 mortality events (13.2%) after applying exclusion criteria for maternal age and data completeness. We compared four modeling frameworks for predictive comparison: Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH), Lasso Cox regression, Random Survival Forests (RSF), and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), alongside a Bayesian Joint Model for inference on the birth interval and mortality association. The proportional hazards assumption was assessed using Schoenfeld residuals, and stratified Cox models were employed to address time-varying effects. Model performance was evaluated using nested cross-validation with mother-level outer folds and time-dependent Concordance Indices (C-index) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics across a 48-month follow-up period.