Drought-attributable mortality in Somalia, 2015-2024: a retrospective and modelling study

Background

Over the past 17 years Somalia and the Horn of Africa have experienced four droughts. We aimed to retrospectively estimate excess population mortality across Somalia during a period encompassing the last two droughts.

Methods

We estimated all-age and under 5 years old excess mortality by district and month by (i) reanalysing household mortality surveys; (ii) reconstructing population denominators from census records and displacement data; (iii) assembling predictors of mortality; (iv) fitting a model to predict death rates and tolls; and (v) subtracting counterfactual mortality levels, corresponding to non-drought periods.

Findings