Climate Opportunity Under Constraint: Comparing Environmental Conditions, Geographic Diversity, Public Safety, and Ultrarunning Performance Potential in North Carolina and Brazil

This independent undergraduate research paper investigates how climate, geography, elevation, humidity, seasonal weather patterns, and public safety may influence endurance-running performance and personal-record opportunities in the United States and Brazil. Using Boone and Belmont, North Carolina, as environmental reference locations, the study examines climatically similar regions of southern and southeastern Brazil, including Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, and Rio Grande do Sul. The research integrates publicly available climate observations, historical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data, published exercise-physiology literature, documented athletic performances, and regional safety information to identify environmental conditions potentially favorable for distance running and ultramarathon competition. Additional attention is given to geographic and cultural similarities between the two countries, including mountain communities, outdoor recreation, agricultural landscapes, and regional environmental diversity. The analysis identifies cool conditions around 8–13°C (46–55°F) as a promising preliminary temperature range for road-distance performance, while highlighting Santa Catarina as a region of particular interest for climate-matched endurance training. The paper also examines how flooding, extreme weather, terrain, and regional safety differences may affect training accessibility and racing opportunities. Research status: Independent exploratory undergraduate research paper. Findings are based primarily on secondary public datasets and existing literature. Individual physiological responses and personal-record predictions have not been experimentally validated. This work has not undergone formal peer review.