Age- and sex-standardized incidence of diabetes mellitus in Peru from 2016 to 2023

Abstract AimsTo estimate national age-specific, sex-specific, and age-standardized incidence of diagnosed diabetes in Peru from 2016 to 2023. MethodsWe analyzed repeated cross-sectional data from the Demographic and Family Health Survey, an annual nationally representative household survey, estimating the prevalence of self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes in adults aged 20 years and older. Smoothed prevalence, United Nations general-population mortality and diabetes mortality rate ratios served as input data for an illness-death model, which enables estimating incidence from cross sectional data. Uncertainty in the input data was propagated through 1,000 simulations. ResultsAmong 294,549 participants, 9,002 (3.1%) reported diagnosed diabetes. Age-standardized incidence increased from 4.46 (95% CI 3.61-5.23) to 8.58 (5.27–14.41) per 1,000 person-years in men and from 5.20 (4.27–6.19) to 9.87 (6.16–16.07) in women. Corresponding incidence rate ratios were 1.93 (1.14–3.24) and 1.92 (1.15–3.16). Relative increases were greatest at younger ages. ConclusionsDiagnosed diabetes incidence in Peru approximately doubled between 2016 and 2023, with larger relative increases among younger adults. These findings support strengthened diabetes prevention and surveillance while highlighting the value of routinely collected survey data for estimating incidence in settings where longitudinal cohorts are unavailable. Key wordsDiabetes, epidemiology, disease burden, Peru