Fibula–Tibia Distance and Revision for Instability After Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Exploratory Case–Control Study Addressing Rotational Confounding

Background/Objectives: Instability without component loosening is a leading indication for revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA), yet no preoperative radiographic marker of this outcome has been validated. We examined whether preoperative fibula–tibia geometry on standing anteroposterior (AP) radiographs differs between patients subsequently revised for instability and non-revised controls, and whether any difference could be explained by radiographic rotation.

Methods

In this exploratory retrospective case–control study, preoperative standing AP radiographs of 22 patients revised for instability without loosening (2014–2024) were compared with 29 primary-TKA controls frequency-matched on age, sex and comorbidity, analyzing the index (operated) knee in both groups. Three blinded orthopedic residents annotated 17 tibiofibular landmarks; 135 pairwise inter-landmark distances normalized to fibular head width were screened, and the distance with the best combined reliability–discrimination rank was carried forward with bootstrap optimism correction and nested repeated cross-validation. Four complementary rotation sensitivity analyses compared two rotation proxies between groups, adjusted the distance for them, decomposed it into vertical and horizontal components with an in silico rotation model, and assessed bilateral agreement.