Journal of Cardiovascular Development and Disease
Divergent Cardiovascular Disease Burden in Hungary and Iraq: A Comparative Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Estimates
By Ahmed Lateef Alkhaqani, Nóra Rozmann, Bence Schiszler and 2 others.
Abstract
Background/objective
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a major cause of death in Hungary and Iraq, which differ markedly in demographic structure, socioeconomic context, and health-system capacity. This study compared annual age-standardized cardiovascular mortality and incidence in Hungary and Iraq from 1990 to 2023 and examined selected risk-attributable cardiovascular mortality trajectories.
Methods
The analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for both sexes were used with annual age-standardized rates per 100,000 population. The primary temporal analysis used restricted cubic splines (RCS) for calendar year with four knots at the 5th, 35th, 65th and 95th percentiles, country effects, and country-by-spline interactions. Feasible generalized least squares with within-country AR (1) correlation were used to account for serial dependence. Selected-year predictions were obtained for 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023. Risk-factor analyses were exploratory and limited to six prespecified country–risk pairs.