International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Neonatal and Maternal Sepsis in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, 1990–2023: A Global Burden of Disease Analysis and Forecast to 2050
By Afnan Ahmad Al-Mass, Mohammed Saad Alshihri, Norah Sami Al Ibrahim and 8 others.
Abstract
Introduction
Sepsis remains an important cause of preventable morbidity and mortality, but long-term trends in neonatal and maternal sepsis across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have not been well characterized.
Methods
We analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates from 1990 to 2023. Absolute counts and age-standardised death and incidence rates (ASDRs and ASIRs) were evaluated. Temporal trends were summarized using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) from log-linear regression, with model fit assessed by R2. Between-country differences in temporal slopes were evaluated using pairwise tests with Holm adjustment. ARIMA and ETS models were used for exploratory projections to 2050.