Pharmacy Practice
Drug use disorders in gulf cooperation council countries (1990–2023): A GBD-based analysis of incidence and disability burden with projections to 2043
By Md Ashraful Islam.
Abstract
Background
Drug use disorders (DUDs) impose substantial health and social harms worldwide. Evidence for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)— Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar —remains fragmented. We quantified levels and trends in incidence and disability and produced policy-relevant projections to 2043 using standardized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methods.
Methods
The current study analyzed GBD estimates for 1990–2023 for overall DUDs and subtypes (opioids, amphetamines/amphetamine-type stimulants, cocaine, cannabis, and other drugs). Primary outcomes were the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized DALY rate (DALY-ASR), reported with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Long-run change was summarized using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC, 1990–2023). Projections for 2024–2043 used Bayesian weighted least squares on log-rates with inverse-variance weights derived from GBD UIs, producing posterior medians and 95% credible intervals. Results were stratified by country, sex, and age group.