Temporal Trends and the Epidemiological Transition of Meningitis Burden in Iran (1990–2023): A Joinpoint Regression Analysis and Its Association with the Human Development Index

Background and Aims: Meningitis remains a major global cause of mortality and disability, and evaluating its long-term epidemiological shifts alongside contextual factors is essential for health policy. Given the scarcity of comprehensive evidence on the trends of meningitis alongside socio-economic development in Iran, this study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of the meningitis burden in Iran from 1990 to 2023 and evaluate its correlation with the Human Development Index (HDI).

Materials and methods

This descriptive-analytical ecological study utilized secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), and mortality (ASMR) rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to calculate the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). Furthermore, the correlation between these epidemiological indices and the Human Development Index (HDI) was assessed via linear regression.