Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology
Predicting Liver Stiffness Approximately 12 Months Ahead Using Serial Transient Elastography
Par Lei M, Zou S, Liu Q et 4 autres.
Contenu en anglais
Résumé
Background
Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is widely used to assess chronic liver disease, but a single measurement does not capture longitudinal change. We evaluated whether serial LSMs and routine clinical indicators could predict continuous LSM approximately 12 months later.
Methods
This retrospective longitudinal study included patients with at least two historical LSMs and a follow-up LSM 270-450 days after the index date. The LSM closest to 365 days was the outcome, and each patient contributed the earliest eligible task. Patients were separated chronologically into a train set (index date through 2022), test set (2023), and validation set (2024). Nested expanding temporal cross-validation selected the model, which was then fixed and compared with longitudinal benchmarks. Patient-level bootstrapping provided 95% confidence intervals (CIs).