Forecasting Ethiopia's Neonatal Mortality Rate Toward the Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.2 Using Statistical and Deep Learning Models: A Time-Series Forecasting Study

Background and aims: A high neonatal mortality rate (NMR) reflects underlying health inequalities, the quality of maternal and newborn care, and overall healthcare system performance. Despite substantial progress, Ethiopia remains off track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2, which aims to reduce NMR to at least 12/1000 by 2030. This study compared statistical and deep learning models to forecast Ethiopia's NMR through 2030, assess the progress towards the SDG target, and provide evidence to inform policy.