Predicting Demographic Contraction as an Upstream Signal for Health-System Planning: A Persistence-Corrected Machine-Learning Framework

Background/objectives

Demographic contraction changes the scale and geography of healthcare demand while weakening the fiscal and workforce base that sustains services. The general objective was to evaluate a persistence-corrected one-year-ahead demographic forecasting framework and to determine whether it can provide a defensible upstream signal for health-system planning; the primary model forecasts demographic change rather than health-system capacity itself.

Methods